The recent presidential election in Mexico, held on June 02, 2024, saw Claudia Sheinbaum succeed Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) as the country's president, marking a significant shift in leadership within the ruling party, MORENA (National Regeneration Movement). In addition to Sheinbaum becoming Mexico’s first female president, this presidential transition is critical for Mexico's decarbonization plans, as the country grapples with substantial carbon emissions and environmental challenges. Sheinbaum holds a PhD in Energy Engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), and her career has been marked by significant contributions to environmental science and policy. She has conducted extensive research on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and urban sustainability, and has served as a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. The shift from Obrador to Sheinbaum signals potential political changes, including a stronger emphasis on renewable energy, sustainable urban development, and comprehensive, actionable environmental policies. In fact, her background is particularly relevant to her presidency because it provides her with a deep understanding of the scientific principles and practical strategies necessary for effective environmental policy-making. As Mexico's new president, Sheinbaum’s expertise can drive evidence-based approaches to decarbonization, helping to balance economic development with environmental sustainability, and positioning the country to better meet its climate goals.
This OpEd explores the opportunities and challenges associated with this transition, and provides a sector-by-sector comparison of key policies under Obrador and their anticipated changes under Sheinbaum.
As outlined in Economy Zero Group’s Mexico Country Profile, the nation faces significant environmental challenges, with substantial carbon emissions from its energy, transportation, and industrial sectors. This shift provides both opportunities and challenges, explored below.
Opportunities
Continuity in Policy: Historically, MORENA’s stance on decarbonization goals has been mixed, with a strong focus on strengthening state-owned energy enterprises and fossil fuels under AMLO, alongside some limited efforts to promote renewable energy and decarbonization. Since both Obrador and Sheinbaum are from MORENA, there is a potential for policy continuity, which can provide stability and predictability for long-term decarbonization projects and a ripe environment for attracting private investment.
Expertise and Innovation: Sheinbaum’s background as an environmental scientist and former mayor of Mexico City positions her to implement innovative and scientifically grounded policies.
Urban Development Focus: Sheinbaum’s experience with urban development in Mexico City can help address emissions from the transportation and buildings sectors more effectively.
Challenges
Political Resistance: Even within the same party, there might be factions resistant to significant changes, particularly in sectors like energy where there are entrenched interests.
Economic Constraints: Decarbonization efforts require significant investment, which might be challenging given Mexico’s economic situation.
Public and Private Sector Alignment: As highlighted in Economy Zero Group’s discussion with Maria Valencia from CAMEXA, ensuring that both public policies and private sector activities align with decarbonization goals can be difficult, particularly in industries resistant to change.
Referring to the sectors explored in Economy Zero Group’s Mexico Country Profile, the following sector-by-sector comparison highlights the differences in policies under AMLO and the anticipated changes under Sheinbaum, illustrating how these shifts could impact Mexico's overall decarbonization strategy.
Sector | Obrador | Sheinbaum |
Electricity | Focused on strengthening state-owned CFE and PEMEX, and fossil fuels in the name of domestication of the energy ecosystem | Likely to push for more renewable energy projects and improved grid infrastructure, and the decentralization of energy asset development. Wants PEMEX to go green |
Despite deployment difficulties, promoted the construction of new oil refineries | Promotion of energy storage and other renewables as part of a US$13B pledge for the energy transition | |
Agriculture and land-use | While he promoted “Sembrando Vida” for reforestation and sustainable agriculture, AMLO was criticized for deforestation linked to infrastructure projects | Sheinbaum’s platform emphasizes the need for enhanced sustainable agriculture practices and conservation efforts, and the promotion of agriculture technology adoption to reduce the sector’s emissions |
Transportation | Limited focus on low-carbon transportation solutions (tax incentives for electric vehicles in place) | Advocacy for sustainable urban mobility solutions |
No emissions/energy intensity standards for light-duty vehicles | Support for electrification of transportation sector | |
Buildings | Some focus on energy efficiency and decarbonization (building envelope energy efficiency standards in place) | Promotion of energy-efficient buildings and sustainable urban planning |
Financial assistance available for efficiency improvements (including for appliances and lighting) | Stricter energy efficiency standards and incentives for green building certifications | |
Industry and Waste | Focused on revitalizing existing and traditional industries | Encouraging industrial decarbonization through innovation |
No programs in place to reduce landfill emissions and end of life recovery | Comprehensive waste management strategies | |
Waste management left to local governments |
The transition from Obrador to Sheinbaum holds significant promise for Mexico’s decarbonization journey. Sheinbaum's potential policy shifts align well with the areas of opportunity identified in our Country Profile, such as expanding renewable energy, enhancing sustainable agricultural practices, and improving urban transportation systems. By leveraging these opportunities, Mexico can address its environmental challenges more effectively and make substantial progress toward a sustainable and decarbonized future. The coming years will be pivotal as Sheinbaum aims to implement essential changes to overcome Mexico's decarbonization challenges, setting the stage for a sustainable transformation of the nation's environmental and economic landscapes.
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