Source: Moka - Joel Meredith Fath
At Subtext Coffee in Toronto, one can enjoy a filter coffee sourced directly from Kinini Co-op, a community coffee enterprise in Rwanda. The aromas of the brew instantly pair thoughts of the East African Country with a feeling of indulgence, yet for many, Rwanda’s tragic history remains an enduring aspect of its international perception. In 1994, the country endured one of the deadliest genocides in African history in which roughly 65% of the Tutsi ethnic minority lost their lives in 100 days of attacks.
Despite this devastating event, the country has persevered through more than three decades of civil and economic recovery, adopting an infrastructure-focused approach. Among other successes, its strategy has allowed them to advance electricity access to communities across the country, with connections prioritizing private and public institutions that are identified as “productive uses of energy”—such as factories, farms, retail, hospitals, schools etc.
The impact has been significant. Since the 2000s, Rwanda has expanded its electrical generation capacity more than threefold, and increased annual electricity production by almost 600%. As of 2025, 82% of the country is connected to either the national grid or to off-grid electrical infrastructure (up from a total of 6% in 2009). During its recovery, the country has also realized an almost uniform period of positive annual GDP growth, with the exception of COVID impacts in 2020, and outperformed Sub-Saharan Africa’s average rate for all but three years.
Annual GDP growth rate for Rwanda (blue) and Sub-Saharan Africa (green) from 2002 - 2023 Source: World Bank
Given the numbers, the correlation between economic growth and expanded electrical infrastructure is clearly positive (without even including transmission and distribution work, new power generation plants built in the 21st century represented over US$3.5B of capital deployment into the country). However, to best understand how the Rwandan state has managed to achieve this success—and what lies ahead—it’s best to take a closer look at the combination of economic and diplomatic tools that have helped lift the country out from its darkest days.
It Takes a Village
Rwanda entered 1994 with a fragile and stagnating economy. Its staple crop of coffee beans had experienced massive price crashes in the late 1980s due to the collapse of the American-led International Coffee Agreement, which had previously helped artificially raise prices and stabilize the global coffee market via production quotas.
Following the events of the Rwandan genocide, any semblance of an economic foundation was quickly demolished. The workforce also shrank dramatically due to the considerable loss of life, and the flight of perpetrator of the attacks, survivors, and innocent Hutu who feared retribution from future President Paul Kagame (then rebel leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front). Due to the magnitude of the atrocities, combined with the presence of a transitional government, the country's ability to attract foreign investment also suffered. With a country to rebuild and a myriad of costly humanitarian concerns, it was clear that external assistance would be essential to Rwanda’s recovery.
International aid soon began to flow into the devastated nation. A combination of international and national efforts provided ~US$250M emergency humanitarian assistance and other financial support to re-establish Rwandan institutions by 1995. This immediate response is believed to have helped the country avoid extreme inflation—due to the robbery of central funds by the ousted regime—and enabled the quick and effective return of over 1 million refugees by the year 2000. However, it is important to note the distinct delay in the international response until after the end of the conflict—neither the United Nations nor the United States officially recognized the attacks as a genocide during their 100-day duration, an act that exempted both parties internal obligations to intervene (formal apologies by both the US President and the UN Secretary General were eventually delivered to the Rwandan people).
Source: Current Affairs
Connecting and Rebuilding
Regardless of its arrival time, the assistance received by the new Rwandan government provided an invaluable opportunity to establish relationships and develop trust with international partners willing to collaborate, if out of guilt, compassion, or a combination of both.
They didn’t waste the opportunity—a 2002 World Bank document describes Rwanda seven years out from the tragedy, and highlights trends of a rapid economic recovery. Thousands of refugees returning home to the workforce, the return of children to school en masse, as well as a waning need for emergency assistance show positive evidence of an administration achieving tangible results with the foreign resources they were granted.
The quick societal turnaround by President Kagame's government strengthened partnerships and attracted even more global attention. By 2008, annual development assistance to Rwanda had more than doubled compared to the start of the 21st century and, as their global reputation continued to improve, Rwanda’s ambitious electrification strategy began to take shape.
Prioritized by the government due to electrification’s alignment with Rwanda’s goal to move the national economy away from agriculture, the country has taken multiple actions to enact their electrification vision. This effort began with the inclusion of electrification targets in Rwanda’s 2008-2013 Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy—a goal that has since been updated to 100%. This set the stage for the government administration to take a leadership role in this endeavour, while establishing a tangible, trackable metric for accountability.
Electricity access in Rwanda - 2025 data not shown (82% total) Source: World Bank
To support the increased work surrounding utilities, the government reconfigured the public sector in 2013 to assign dedicated oversight, management and operation responsibilities to three distinct agencies. Public entities were also required to commit annually to updated electrification targets for additional accountability. Simultaneously, the Development Bank of Rwanda was tasked with supporting the private sector’s rollout of Solar Home Systems (SHSs) through credit lines and results-based financing, promoting development of both on-grid and off-grid solutions.
By developing trusted and results-driven energy agencies while fostering strong global partnerships and collaborations, Rwanda has created a development ecosystem that appeals to many parties, and have partnered with a variety of governments, NGOs, and/or private developers to enable new generation, transmission and distribution projects, leading to rapid growth in electricity access, peak capacity and annual electricity usage.
Inauguration of the Rubona utility-scale solar plant, a collaboration with energy developer, Gigawatt Global
Source: REG
Sparks and Surges
So, with a GDP that doesn’t seem to quit and with electrification progressing at full speed ahead, does Rwanda have it all figured out?
Maybe!
When assessing Rwanda’s electrification progress, both supply and demand factors must be considered. When it comes to sources, Rwanda is definitely heading in the right direction, at least in this writer’s opinion. Starting in 2014, with the commissioning of the Nyabarongo I hydroelectric plant, hydropower became the country’s primary energy source. Looking ahead, plans are in place to triple the peak hydropower capacity in the country, as well as investigating micro and modular nuclear technologies, enabling a sustainable and modern energy supply to support future development and growth.
(Sources of electrical power used in Rwanda)
Source: IEA
The real challenges with electrification become clearer when considering Rwanda’s total energy use. Although electricity access has progressed by multiples since the 1990s, the reality is about 70% of residents are located in less developed, more rural areas. These communities rely heavily on burning local biomass and firewood for everyday heating and cooking needs. Additionally, electric car infrastructure has not yet matured, leading to many trips utilizing combustion engines. Although some fuels can be sourced locally, like methane dissolved in lakes and mined coal, the heavy reliance on foreign oil products for transportation solidifies the country’s status as an energy importer.
Considerably larger Oil (orange) and Biomass (Green) energy consumption as opposed to the Coal (non-power, red) and Electricity (yellow). Source: IEA
Despite these limitations, the government is actively seeking ways to maximize the benefits of its electrification program. Last fall the government worked with the World Bank to identify policies to encourage the use of specific electrical appliances that could significantly improve business outcomes and electricity utilization across the country.
For example, very few farmers in Rwanda practice irrigation, despite its advantages. And, to those with the know-how and the gear (you need a water pump), the cost to run a fossil-fuel pump can quickly diminish its benefits. So, why not a solar water pump? Trials with farmers showed that eliminating fuel costs could almost double farm revenues. Another example is the electric motorcycle, which had potential to outperform standard gas models, cost less to maintain, and would help shift transportation energy back to electrified solutions and away from imported gas. The study suggests viable methods to promote the adoption of these technologies, including tariffs, concessions, and consumer education, but it also highlights a reality many developing countries have realized the hard way—electrification can be pricey.
Although Rwanda’s GDP has grown remarkably over the last 30 years, market barriers such as high capital and operating costs (for plug-in devices) prevent business owners from going electric. While the country is advancing rapidly, Rwanda is still one of the poorest countries on the planet, especially when assessed per capita. As you may have guessed, this is why Rwanda’s reputation as a reliable development partner is so crucial to its long term goals for electrification and beyond; the administration needs funds to act on its mandate before it can develop enough to self-sustain. However, as political winds continue to blow through Africa and the rest of the world, could that reputation be at risk?
A Man on a Mission
A controversial figure in East African politics, President Paul Kagame led rebels to victory to end the genocide of 1994, assuming position as Rwanda’s head of state and remaining there ever since. Described as “a master of the international game,” it is clear Rwanda would not be where it is today without his distinct leadership style and ability to weave partnerships on the global stage—bringing in more than US$1B in annual foreign aid in recent years. Despite a very low GDP per capita compared to global averages, Kagame has managed to reduce inequality, poverty, malaria, child mortality, introduce universal health care, and has some of the highest rates of women participating in government and the general workforce in the world. However, in recent months, the very man who brought global attention to Rwanda may now risk alienating international support.
Total annual official development assistance in $USD (2025) to Rwanda
Source:World Bank
Currently, in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), pro-Tutsi rebel group M23 is conducting a military incursion into DRC-government controlled land. Due to his military past, ethnic identity, and the countries’ united but divided history of conflict, accusations that M23 is an ally or proxy of Kagame’s regime have run rampant, which he has actively denied. Combined with long-standing criticisms of authoritarianism, augmented by his 99% win against the only other 2 candidates that were cleared to run in the last election, the recent M23 drama has seen Rwanda’s closest supporters start to raise concerns. At the end of February, Kagame’s defense minister was hit with sanctions by the two largest providers of aid to the country—the United States and the United Kingdom. It’s easy to interpret this as a warning sign for the regime, so it’s no surprise that two days ago. Kagame provided a Rwandan newspaper an interview about the dangers of dependency on foreign aid.
President Paul Kagame addressing the General Assembly of the UN Source: United Nations
Kagame is rational enough to admit the current necessity of foreign assistance to Rwanda’s development, but he warns on growing too reliant on international aid, stressing its utilization on developing facilities to social and economic autonomy. Whether for good or bad “whoever gives you aid, controls your life.” Up until now, the Rwandan president has played the diplomacy game by his book: identify partners that are not just interested in helping your country today, but its growth tomorrow too.
By holding his cards close, Kagame has optimized public and private delivery models to accelerate the delivery of vital services to his people, with electrification as an amazing example of his administration's ability to advance Rwanda into a new era. However, as tensions rise in East Africa, and world-power partners start to apply pressure, time will tell if the man who gave his country its power may soon find himself in a position to relinquish his own.
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